Cum interpretam conferinta ECB

[Radu Ciofu]

Un eveniment foarte important al pietei Forex sunt conferintele de politica monetara a Bancilor Centrale. Insa de multe ori limbajul oficial are cateva jargoane care nu sunt aparent evidente.
In cazul Bancii Centrale Europene (ECB) limbajul are urmatoarele particularitati:
Legat de inflatie :

• "MONITOR CLOSELY" inseamna ca deocamdata ECB este multumita cu actualul raport intre dobanda de referinta si inflatie si nu intentioneaza sa modifice dobanda.
• "MONITOR VERY CLOSELY" inseamna ca ECB nu este multumita de actualul raport dobanzi/inflatie si ca pregateste o crestere de rata insa ea nu este iminenta. Cel mai probabil va urma o crestere de rata peste 2-3 sedinte de politica monetara.
• "STRONG VIGILANCE" inseamna o crestere de rata in urmatoarea sedinta de politica monetara.

In cazul oricarei monede, cresterea dobanzii inseamna presiuni pentru aprecierea monezii respective.


Radu Ciofu, ProfitBursier.ro

[hcristea]

Cum a fost expresia folosită în conferinţă?

[Radu Ciofu]

MONITOR VERY CLOSELY

De asta pica EURUSD, pentru ca data trecuta Trichet a folosit aceeasi expresie si automat s-a presupus ca va fi o crestere in iunie. Aparent insa crestrea va fi in iulie.

[okidoki]

Going into the European Central Bank’s monthly meeting, foreign exchange analysts suggested that a rise in its central policy rate next month was between 30 and 40 per cent priced in. Using the code he has developed, Mr Trichet could have promised a June rise with the words “strong vigilance”. But he opted only to say that the ECB would “closely monitor” inflation – which leaves the door open for a more gradual exit strategy, with the next rise possibly in July.

Sursa

[Radu Ciofu]

Citat din Jean Cleaude Trichet, copiat din stenograma conferintei de politica moentara de ieri:


"With interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remaining low and the monetary policy stance still accommodative, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy."

Stenogramele pentru conferintele de presa ale ECB le puteti accesa pe site-ul ECB :

ECB: Introductory statement to the press conference