Catastrofa din Japonia

[hcristea]

Sunt curios ce împact va avea acest eveniment asupra pieţelor. Acum la început e normal să existe multă confuzie în piaţă deşi greucenii probabil că s-au hotărât deja ce vor face.

Japonia va intra în reconstrucţie şi pentru asta va fi nevoie de mult cash. Cred că principalul player extern în reconstrucţie va fi SUA. Un yen puternic este bun în acest moment pentru cumpărarea de USD necesari pentru plata SUA pt reconstrucţie. O cerere de USD va duce la devalorizarea yen-ului şi aprecierea dolarului. Aceasta apreciere a USD va avea efecte şi în preţul aurului şi probabil că va duce la o corecţie mult aşteptată la GOLD.

Acesta cred că e un scenariu posibil. Sunt curios să văd ce urmează.

[maxu08]

gindesti prea mult sunt de acord ca lumea va vinde usd si cumpara yeni ca sa acopere costurile de reconstructie insa nici BoJ nu va sta la geam sa priveasca florile de cires. deja a bagat in sistemul bancar citeva miliarde bune de yeni.

[hcristea]

Original postat de maxu08

gindesti prea mult ...

... dar fără efort

Parcă văd că pe când înfloresc cireşii şi-or face curat în ogradă şi pot contempla în liniste.

[Cornelius]

De vreo 15 minute volatilitatea a crescut foarte mult pe toate majorele. Nu cumva s-a intamplat ceva nasol in Japonia? Nu vad nicio stire pentru moment. Spread de 15 pipsi pe USD/JPY la IBFX, 7 la EUR/USD. Ceva e putred!

[Cornelius]

400 de pipsi lumanarea de pe daily pe USD/JPY, 600 pe EUR/JPY. Nu am vazut niciodata asa ceva. Nici chiar in 2008.

[danpav86]

Pe FXCM am vazut spread 19 pe EUR/USD acum 10 minute...

[fxfog]

YouTube - Losing battle for Fukushima? Radioactive material leaked out, plant abandoned

[hcristea]

habar-n-am. Am observat şi eu aprecierea drastică a yenului pe USDJPY, a CHF-ului. S-ar putea să fie niste mişculatii last minute înainte de închidere.

[Cornelius]

Original postat de hcristea

habar-n-am. Am observat şi eu aprecierea drastică a yenului pe USDJPY, a CHF-ului. S-ar putea să fie niste mişculatii last minute înainte de închidere.

Misculatii de sute de pipsi? Ma indoiesc. Tare imi e ca s-a intamplat ceva grav acolo.

[danpav86]

Acum doua ore am inchis la -70 pips o pozitie long pe USD/JPY...daca o mai lasam, adio cont!

[danpav86]

Pe CNN zice ca ”Japan recovers from quake, tsunami.” Dar nu arata nimic care sa genereza panica.

[crm]

O fi vorba de discursul Imparatului si / sau declaratiile comisarului european pentru Energie, Guenther Oettinger...

[okidoki]

The Japanese Yen rose soared against all of major currencies, driving USD/JPY to a fresh record low of 76.46 . When USD/JPY broke its previous low of 79.75, it dropped another 300 pips in a matter of 30 minutes. Such an abrupt move is clearly a result of stops being triggered and capitulation. We have not see a move in USD/JPY this large since the Flash Crash in May. With the Yen rising so quickly in such a short period of time, it would be negligent for the Bank of Japan not to intervene in the currency even if intervention is usually futile. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank need to come in and inject some two way action in the Yen otherwise USD/JPY is headed for 85. The central bank’s liquidity injections stabilized the equity market but failed to stop the Yen from rising. Having intervened unsuccessfully in the Yen last year, the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance know that intervention rarely works unless it is coordinated with other central banks. However with interest rates basically at zero, the central bank has very few options. The crisis caused by the earthquake and tsunami has dealt a significant blow to the Japanese economy and the rapid appreciation of the Yen has only made things worse. There is a very strong possibility that the Bank of Japan could come into the markets tonight and buy dollars between 75 and 80. With USD/JPY breaking below its record low of 79.75, the risk of intervention has increased significantly. However in order for intervention to be truly successful, Japan needs to gain the support of its G7 counterparts. French officials have reportedly called a meeting between G7 finance ministers and central bankers before the end of the week to discuss the economic impact of Japan and measures to calm the financial markets. Japan will take this opportunity to make a plea for coordinated intervention and there may be less opposition given the severity of the situation in Japan and impact that it has had on the financial markets around the world. Hold onto your hats because the next few trading days will remain volatile.
USD: MORE BAD NEWS MEANS MORE VOLATILITY
With the situation in Japan still evolving and the tensions in the Middle East escalating, the financial markets are unusually volatile. U.S. and European stocks plunged for the third day in a row, sending investors back into the arms of the U.S. dollar. The greenback traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc which surged as a result of risk aversion and repatriation. Unfortunately the severity of the sell-off indicates that the Japanese are not the only ones selling. The sharp moves in the financial markets have made everyone nervous and the natural inclination of many investors is to liquidate and move to the sidelines until the situation in Japan stabilizes. As long as a nuclear catastrophe remains a risk, there is a potential for further losses in equities and currencies. The VIX, which measures volatility in the stock market rose to its highest level since July while one month USD/JPY option volatilities reached its highest since May, when the 2010 Flash Crash drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 900 points which was its second largest intraday point swing ever.
Even the Fed was Spooked by the Volatility
The volatility even spooked the Fed who first canceled and then rescheduled its permanent open market operations (POMO). Apparently the Federal Reserve did not want to waste QE by coming in at a time or day when the markets are extremely volatile and would simply shrug off their purchases. However when their announcement caused even more volatility, the Fed decided to reschedule and extend the POMO in an attempt to stabilize the markets. Unfortunately they were unsuccessful because equities extended their losses with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day down 242 points. The volatility and risk aversion drove USD/JPY and USD/CHF to a record low. Life a falling knife, USD/JPY fell hard and fast when it broke its prior record low of 79.75. At the time of publication, the “new” record low in USD/JPY is 76.46. The rapid sell-off indicates that a number of stops were hit below prior support. The initial selling of USD/JPY was prompted by the EU Energy Chief’s warning that Japan’s nuclear plant is out of control and possible catastrophic events could occur over the next hours. He later clarified this comment by saying that he was simply expressing his fear and did not warn that a catastrophe was going happen, but it was too late. The second round of selling in USD/JPY was triggered by reports from Reuters that the Tokyo Stock Exchange could be closed due to volatility. The situation in Japan is so dangerous that countries around the world are advising their citizens to leave Tokyo. The Japanese are racing against the clock to avoid nuclear fallout and with each passing day the risk of an environmental and human catastrophe escalates. Unless there is some improvement in Japan’s nuclear problems, deleveraging will probably continue, causing USD/JPY to fall as low as 75.

[Cornelius]

Original postat de danpav86

Acum doua ore am inchis la -70 pips o pozitie long pe USD/JPY...daca o mai lasam, adio cont!

Inseamna ca ai riscat mult intr-o singura tranzactie. Bine, acum depinde si ce disponibilitate ai sa urmaresti tranzactiile.

[maxu08]

ptr 9 pipsi am ratat tp ieri pe eurchf ghinion curat