Market Review

[seba]

* Italy must pass a law before being able to fund Greek aid: Reuters
* US February trade deficit $39.7 bln, larger than expected
* Germany’s Merkel: Successful Greek debt auction shows aid not yet needed
* US think tank: SNB not concerned until EUR/CHF reaches 1.40
* German economic institutes raise German GDP forecasts to 1.5% in 2010
* UK betting shops show Tory lead as not large enough to secure a majority
* Discount minutes showed “some members” wanted a further 0.25% hike to 1.00%
* US equities eek out fractional gain to 1197.30 in S&P 500
* US yields dip in choppy trade; 10-year notes end 2 bp lower at 3.82%
* Oil closes below $84; gold slips to $1146, closes at $1151

Markets were quite choppy and rumor driven during the US morning. Interest rate speculation was particularly high.

Talk of a discount rate hike in the US made the rounds again this morning as did talk that the Fed would drop its “unusually low rates for an extended period” language knocked EUR/USD down from just above the 1.3600 level all the way to 1.3545 level before edging higher in glacial afternoon trade, to end just below 1.36. 1.3628 was the fleeting NY high.

The market still seems very balanced today with a healthy portion of the market seeing a technical bottom made in EUR/USD with an equally large camp unconvinced by the EU’s reluctant rescue package. The fact that Greece paid 10 times what the US pays for 1-year money today gives the skeptics plenty of comfort.

USD/JPY traded in very choppy fashion after getting an overnight lift on hopes for new deflation fighting steps by the DPJ as well as talk of a dramatically lower yen by the ruling party. US Treasuries were volatile, falling in yield early, before rebounding in yield as the morning wore on. 2-year notes traded in a 1.02-1.07% range with USD/JPY tracking pretty closely.

EUR/CHF was knocked lower by talk out of a NY hedge fund advisory that the SNB could tolerate EUR/CHF as low as 1.400. We fell from 1.4395 to 1.4330 on the news.

AUD/USD edged up in US afternoon trade and ends the day close to US highs at 0.9285. Intel’s strong earnings report was a boost for the risk trade. 0.9220/30 is shaping up as very solid support on dips.

[seba]

* The MAS revalues the SGD after raising growth and inflation forecasts
* USD/SGD falls 1% immediately and bounces have been limited
* Event leads to heavy buying of EUR/USD and other majors
* New Zealand retail sales falls unexpectedly, -0.6% against +0.2% expected
* Latest Australian consumer confidence index falls 1%
* Fed’s Lacker sees need to withdraw stimulus carefully
* Chinese minister: foreign pressure for Yuan revaluation is unwarranted
* Intel gains 4% after hours on strong sales forecasts
* Regional stockmarkets make solid gains, Gold steady above $1150/oz

We were anticipating an uneventful session after a quiet NY afternoon but all this was changed by the MAS announcement of a SGD revaluation. This led to some heavy buying of EUR/USD and AUD/USD amongst the majors and also of some sharp moves higher in the JPY crosses as risk-on sentiment prevailed. This sentiment was also helped by the strong Intel forecasts which have buoyed regional stockmarkets.

EUR/USD saw some very heavy turnover as big offers at 1.3630 and 1.3650 were easily chewed through. EUR/JPY rallied to re-test Monday’s high at 127.45 and the pullback in either pair has been quite negligible. Ranges: 1.3605/65 and 126.76/127.46.

USD/JPY has been at the mercy of cross flows in a fairly sedate 93.17/35 range.

The AUD saw some heavy buying out of Japan and has also been unwilling to give up any of its intraday gains. Range: .9276/.9326.

Cable has followed the EUR/USD higher although to a slightly lesser degree as the cross put on 15 pips. Ranges: cable 1.5373/1.5426 and EUR/GBP .8840/59.

Markets: Nikkei +0.3%, Singapore +0.9%, HK flat, Kospi +0.9%. Gold +$2 to $1156/oz.

[seba]

Traders are suggesting an Asia central bank has been seen buying GBP/USD from just below the figure. Nothing untoward here, it happens nearly every day with Asian c/b’s buying US Dollars in order to keep the local currency weak then recycle the (unwanted) US Dollars into Euro, GBP, AUD etc.

Reuters is now reporting that Israel’s c/bank has intervened to the tune of $500mln this morning – I wonder what they are going to do with their unwanted US Dollars!

[seba]

London is full of gossip this morning with traders saying stops placed above 1.37 are huge. Some are thinking that the Greece problem can be put on the backburner for a little while so shorts maybe in for a good old fashioned squeeze at some stage.

Looking ahead Bernanke speaks tonight et al othe Fed members plus we have four S&P companies reporting earnings including JPMorgan. On the data front we have US CPI and retail sales for March (1230GMT) plus business inventories for Feb (1400GMT).

I have no real firm views but I would expect Mr Bernanke to remain dovish as usual.

[seba]

GOLD: Rallying to $1,157 - lifting Aud - on reports that Indian imports for March increased five-fold.

[Cornelius]

Nice thread, seba!

[seba]

thanks...in masura in care imi permite timpul si aflu ceva intereant din piatza,o sa incerc sa postez in timp real sau sa specific sursa,dupa caz....daca este interes,daca nu...o sa stau cuminte in "barlogul" meu

[soso]

Original postat de seba

thanks...in masura in care imi permite timpul si aflu ceva intereant din piatza,o sa incerc sa postez in timp real sau sa specific sursa,dupa caz....daca este interes,daca nu...o sa stau cuminte in "barlogul" meu

Este este...baga mare

[seba]

BERLIN (MNI) – A German Finance Ministry spokesman said Wednesday
he “cannot confirm” a report by German business daily Handelsblatt that
heavily-indebted Greece will be given E90 billion in aid by its Eurozone
peers over three years.

Ministry spokesman Michael Offer said at a regular government press
conference here that Eurozone Finance Ministers had only reached an
agreement “of an upper limit for aid to Greece this year of E30 billion,
everything else is speculation.”

Earlier today, the European Commission already denied the report,
saying only the first year figure of E30 billion has been discussed and
finalised by Eurozone Finance Ministers.

Pointing to yesterday’s successful Greek auction, Offer said “at
the moment it does not look like” Greece will actually need aid from the
Eurozone. The German government believes that Greece will achieve its
budget consolidation goals and there will be, thus, no need to table any
Greek aid for the coming years, he said.

Should Greece actually ask for financial help this year, German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will have to ask parliament to
approve Germany’s contribution to the aid package, Offer explained.


asta poate avea ca si consecinta vanzarea pe eur/usd

[seba]

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

[seba]

* USD/JPY, Stop-loss buy orders at 93.65/70 and 93.80/90
* Asian sellers of USD/JPY 93.60/65
* 1.3700 barrier option held by China expected to be vigorously defended; stops heavy above that level
* Strong offers at 1.5450 in cable

[Lorant]

Super barbate.De unde le scoti?
Esti abonat?

[seba]

Original postat de Lorant

Super barbate.De unde le scoti?
Esti abonat?

da..si mai am pe cineva care lucreaza in domeniu pe Londra si NYSE cu care ma corespondez

[soso]

seba ti-am pus sageata verde in dreptul thread-ului sa fie vizibil repede pe pagine de index. O sa caut alt icon mai sugestiv pe net special dedicat pt threadu asta.

[seba]

Original postat de soso

seba ti-am pus sageata verde in dreptul thread-ului sa fie vizibil repede pe pagine de index. O sa caut alt icon mai sugestiv pe net special dedicat pt threadu asta.

o ok oricum....informatia sa fie de folos